NFL Game of the Week: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

It’s a series that the home team Dolphins have dominated in recent years. New England has won just two of their previous nine visits to Florida and, even during the Tom Brady era, the home team Dolphins held the winning edge, going 0.61 in games where Brady was New England’s starter.

There’s been a seismic shift in the balance of power in the AFC East. Buffalo has overthrown the Patriots as the dominant force in the East, and the Dolphins and the Patriots are locked in a power struggle for second spot - and a likely wildcard slot for the post season.

Miami’s 9-8, 2021 season wasn’t quite good enough for a post season berth, they ranked ninth, just shy of the seven post season spots. But prior to week nine they’d lost seven straight, whereas thereafter they went on a thumping 8-1 winning streak in a schedule that was front loaded with playoff bound opposition.

They also topped and tailed their season with a week one win in New England and a week 18, 34-24 success against the same rival.

Quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa had an injury interrupted campaign, but his 7-5 record as a starter was mirrored in his 6-3 rookie season. He’s shown pleasing progression from year one to two and Miami has beefed up his passing options with the addition of Tyreek Hill from Kansas City.

Injuries left the Dolphins in the bottom third for passing efficiency in 2021, a step back from 2020, but Hill is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. He will open other passing options and at a stroke push Miami towards the top ten passing sides in 2022, as the Dolphins hope to cement Tagovailoa as their long-term quarterback.

Defensively, they are already a slightly above average unit, both against the run and the pass. They also improved on that side of the ball as the season progressed and they kept five teams to ten points or fewer in the second half of the season.

Ten actual wins were dwarfed by the 12.4 Pythagorean wins that their points differential of 462 scored and 303 allowed might have merited. They threw 54% of the time, with well above average passing efficiency and were a difficult opponent to pass against.

They scored 27.2 points per game against opponents that typically conceded just 23.2 points per game and the defense was even better, conceding 17.8 points per game against offenses that scored at a rate of 22.5 points per game.

In Mac Jones, they had a stand out rookie quarterback. Accurate, efficient and placed into an environment where he could excel, he almost made it into the top ten list of passers, as he led the Patriots to a 10-7 record. A post season appearance ended prematurely with a rout against Buffalo and along with the Dolphins, the Patriots struggled to impose themselves against the very best.

Notably, offensive coach, Josh McDaniels has moved on to take up the head coach role in Las Vegas, which may impact on Jones’ development. Offensive play-calling duties is currently by a committee of three. That may lead to confusion, rather than clarity and pre-season was disappointing for Jones with poor completion rates, interceptions and sacks and no touchdowns, albeit in limited action.

On the playing side, New England has typically avoided over paying for existing talent and departures in free agency, trades and cuts will impact the starting lineup. They’ll face a speedy Dolphins aerial attack and they allowed their best cornerback, JC Jackson to leave for the Chargers in March.

These are two sides who should be closely matched, as the Patriots take a step back and Miami load up on offense, favoured by Mike McDaniel, their new head coach. The weather will favour the Dolphins - despite the Patriots arriving in Florida early in an attempt to acclimate to the higher humidity, and they have an exploitable weakness in the passing game that may force the Patriots to play catch up and so take the home side to edge past the spread with a 24-20 win.