This event has now expired. See more tips or find out more about the Pinnacle.com VIP code

NFL Game of the Week: Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

By Chris Horton

07 Oct 2022

Chris Horton 07 Oct 2022

Share this article

NFL 2022 Stats
NFL 2022 odds and predictions
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns projections

Inform your NFL predictions ahead of the biggest matches this season with the Game of the Week. This week, the Cleveland Browns host the Los Angeles Chargers.

Los Angeles Chargers(2-2) at Cleveland Browns(2-2): Odds at a glance
Browns at Chargers: Defense
Browns at Chargers: Offense
Final thoughts

Los Angeles Chargers(2-2) at Cleveland Browns(2-2): Odds at a glance

A game between two 2-2 sides epitomises the parity that exists in the early 2022 NFL season.

We’ve played almost a quarter of the 17-match regular season and every team has shown some sign of life, albeit mixed with obvious frailties.

We only have one unbeaten team, but every team has avoided defeat at least once and the glut of eight 2-2 teams in the 16-team AFC highlights the closeness of the race.

Cleveland’s 2-2 record currently entitles them to the top spot in the AFC North, beating out Baltimore and Cincinnati on tiebreakers, and fourth place overall in the AFC seeding, while the Chargers are seeded 10th in the Conference and are one win adrift of AFC West leaders the Kansas City Chiefs, but ahead of the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders.

The raw numbers illustrate that both of these sides are better at offense than defense.

Bet on the NFL with Pinnacle

Browns at Chargers: Defense

The Browns have allowed 23.8 points per game compared to the Chargers who currently allow 27.0. However, early season schedules are often skewed and the Browns’ apparent superiority may be misleading.

The Chargers have faced the Chiefs, a surging Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Raiders, who are currently the best 1-3 team in the NFL.

Overall, the teams faced by the Chargers score an average of 25.2 points per game and while LA have allowed 27.0 points per game, the difference is only 1.8.

In contrast, Cleveland’s opponents haven’t been the most potent, including the Carolina Panthers, the New York Jets, and the Pittsburgh Steelers and overall, these opponents have scored an average of just 20.7 points per game.

This makes the Browns concession of 23.8, with a differential of 3.1, look slightly worse than that of the Chargers.

In short, we have two defenses that have performed below average in terms of points allowed, once account is taken for the quality of the opposition faced so far.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers have struggled mightily to contain the run. LA’s opponents have gained 4.5 yards per rushing attempt overall, but that has risen to 5.4 yards per attempt when facing the Chargers.

The Browns are deficient in pass defense. They are allowing nearly a yard more per pass attempt compared to the average 2022 gain of their opponents.

Bet on the NFL with Pinnacle

Browns at Chargers: Offense

Cleveland have scored 26.3 points per game against defenses that have only allowed 23.6 on average in 2022 and they’ve done it mainly on the ground, gaining over a yard per attempt further than their opposition has allowed. Aerially, though, they’ve been slightly subpar.

The Chargers have been a marginally above-average offensive team, scoring 23.0 points per game against defenses that allow 22.2.

But they’ve relied heavily on quarterback Justin Herbert, who has thrown just over half a yard further per passing attempt compared to the average concession rate of the teams they have faced. They’ve also had the league’s worst running efficiency and desperately need more balance when they have the ball.

There are, of course, mitigating circumstances in such a small sample size. Cleveland quarterback Jacoby Brissett – deputising for Deshaun Watson who was suspended for 11 games – has shown the inconsistency befitting his backup status and injuries have limited stars from both teams and on both sides of the football.

Linebacker Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen for the LA side, and Myles Garrett at defensive end for the Browns have joined the list of recent absentees.

It’s going to be a fascinating contest where strengths and weaknesses collide, and so both sides will attempt to impose their preferred game strategy on the other.

The Chargers will be strongly fancied if they can play with Justin Herbert, who is still nursing a rib injury from Week 2, and challenge Brissett to keep up.

LA have thrown the ball on 64% of their 2022 snaps, which has forced opponents to reply in kind, throwing the ball with similar frequency. It’s likely that Brissett will wilt under such requirements.

On the other hand, the Browns have relied on a 54% ground-based duet between Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, with occasional contributions from Brissett. LA’s inability to stop the run makes that the Browns’ best course to securing a win.

The Browns already have seven rushing touchdowns, with Chubb leading the way with five and each of the duo has broken for at least one double-digit run in every game in 2022.

Bet on the NFL with Pinnacle

Final thoughts

Another factor that could impact the result is that it’s another road game for LA and their body clock will be ticking on mid-morning time come kick-off, although visiting sides have become more aware of this perceived disadvantage and have tried to adapt and prepare.

Scoring rates make this a predicted close game, 23-21 in favour of the Chargers, but injuries may swing the game back towards the hosts.

Reinforcements are expected to arrive for the Browns’ defensive line, whereas LA’s Allen remains unlikely to resume receiving duties following a hamstring injury and Bosa is a long-term casualty for LA.

Bet on Cleveland to win this one.

Sign up and get great NFL odds on numerous markets for every game this season with Pinnacle.