In-play NFL betting strategy

For most bookies, live betting is generating as much interest as pre-game betting markets. This increased demand has led to more live betting markets being offered by bookies. This means that whether you are looking to bet on the biggest game of the weekend, or one with less interest placed on it, you will always find in-play betting options. 

In-play betting markets are often treated as knee-jerk bets by many gamblers. The speed at which the odds change and the fact people are betting in real time coupled with a lack of knowledge and judgement at times can see in-play betting become a real lottery for some.

Most bookmakers that offer in-play betting will rely on a combination of math models, algorithms, and human trading teams to control in-play prices and offerings.

Live pricing for all sports tends to follow a similar trajectory based on time decay. As time goes on, the range of possible outcomes narrows and prices become more efficient.

For example, the range of possible scorelines for an NFL game is vastly higher in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter.

NFL in-play markets are unique. The combination of fixed scoring, situational influence, and frequent tie/lead change scenarios mean markets tend to require more human intervention than usual.

Tie game scenarios act as a direct re-evaluation of the betting market by bookmakers. In-play positions can be easy to spot in tie game scenarios when keeping the following factors in mind:

Secondly, New England are most likely the liability side. Bookmakers will be very quick to adjust in-play odds based on the amount of liability.

Next, keep an eye on the reaction in price following an early New England score. If the point spread holds tight below the next key number, keep an eye out for a potential position by bookmakers holding the price down against the liability. If the price shoots up through the next key number, you can begin to keep an eye out for overinflation and a runaway market.

Once you think you know how sensitive a market is and the range of the movement, look to time an entry if you see bookmakers taking a position against liability or if there is overinflation. In-play prices should always account for possession. The instant a team begins a drive, the price is higher than market value and requires a score to put the bet in a profitable exit position.

Successful live betting comes with experience. You can only become truly comfortable and confident by spending time watching and wagering on these markets. A favourite in-play betting scenario is opposing a side leading by two possessions where the market has not flipped through zero or increased by more than one touchdown.

You can bookies and the market can price deficit recovery much more accurately than they can price lead retention. This is why some prefer to make  market entries early in the first half on teams trailing with the goal of removing liability shortly after a move to create a risk-free bet.

You can buy and sell very quickly just as a wave of money begins to enter the market. Using  the above factors to determine your entry before then waiting on the money to come in, either it will move you, or it will move right through you.

We encourage all bettors to take a few minutes to monitor key numbers, identify the liability side, and acknowledge time decay in the next game they watch. This will ensure that price movements will take on a whole new meaning.