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In-play NFL betting strategy
- Read our NFL in-play betting strategy
- Learn about the importance of time decay
- Get In-play NFL betting examples
In-play betting, also known as live betting, on the NFL has become very popular, but do bettors know how to find value when live betting on American Football? What should bettors look for when betting during the biggest and smallest games? Is there any value to be found in the in-play NFL odds? If you want to learn all out in-play betting in the NFL then read on.
For most bookies, live betting is generating as much interest as pre-game betting markets. This increased demand has led to more live betting markets being offered by bookies. This means that whether you are looking to bet on the biggest game of the weekend, or one with less interest placed on it, you will always find in-play betting options.
In-play betting markets are often treated as knee-jerk bets by many gamblers. The speed at which the odds change and the fact people are betting in real time coupled with a lack of knowledge and judgement at times can see in-play betting become a real lottery for some.
Most bookmakers that offer in-play betting will rely on a combination of math models, algorithms, and human trading teams to control in-play prices and offerings.
Live pricing for all sports tends to follow a similar trajectory based on time decay. As time goes on, the range of possible outcomes narrows and prices become more efficient.
For example, the range of possible scorelines for an NFL game is vastly higher in the first quarter than in the fourth quarter.
NFL in-play markets are unique. The combination of fixed scoring, situational influence, and frequent tie/lead change scenarios mean markets tend to require more human intervention than usual.
Tie game scenarios act as a direct re-evaluation of the betting market by bookmakers. In-play positions can be easy to spot in tie game scenarios when keeping the following factors in mind:
- Key numbers (3, 4, 7, 10, 13, 14) cause resistance and will open up middling
- Every live market has both a liability side and a house side
- In-play markets are an extension of the pre-match markets
- Possession will invariably dictate the position
- Beware of the market flip
NFL in-play betting example
Here is an example of how you can analyse an in-play market:
The Miami Dolphins are playing the New England Patriots. The New England Patriots are the 7.5 point favourites before the game has started.
First of all, the point spread is a key number. Key numbers are significant because bookmakers will be hesitant to move the odds through them. Doing so allows any bettor with a pre-game bet to middle and win both bets.
Secondly, New England are most likely the liability side. Bookmakers will be very quick to adjust in-play odds based on the amount of liability.
Next, keep an eye on the reaction in price following an early New England score. If the point spread holds tight below the next key number, keep an eye out for a potential position by bookmakers holding the price down against the liability. If the price shoots up through the next key number, you can begin to keep an eye out for overinflation and a runaway market.
Once you think you know how sensitive a market is and the range of the movement, look to time an entry if you see bookmakers taking a position against liability or if there is overinflation. In-play prices should always account for possession. The instant a team begins a drive, the price is higher than market value and requires a score to put the bet in a profitable exit position.
Finding value in the NFL in-play odds
You should always try to bet on the NFL in-play when the team you identify value on is playing defence. Since the team with possession is already inflated, a score impacts the market much less than a defensive turnover or a defensive stop followed by a score.
The most telling of all in-play moves is the market flip. Bookmakers will always be extremely hesitant to flip the point spread through PK (+/- 0). Any time a market does flip, a large portion of punters with pre-game bets will have an option for instant cashout or can profit by betting the opposite side at an equal or higher price.
A market flip is rare, but can produce an extremely profitable betting opportunity. This is particualrly relevant if the non-liability side is the team flipping the market.
Successful live betting comes with experience. You can only become truly comfortable and confident by spending time watching and wagering on these markets. A favourite in-play betting scenario is opposing a side leading by two possessions where the market has not flipped through zero or increased by more than one touchdown.
You can bookies and the market can price deficit recovery much more accurately than they can price lead retention. This is why some prefer to make market entries early in the first half on teams trailing with the goal of removing liability shortly after a move to create a risk-free bet.
You can buy and sell very quickly just as a wave of money begins to enter the market. Using the above factors to determine your entry before then waiting on the money to come in, either it will move you, or it will move right through you.
We encourage all bettors to take a few minutes to monitor key numbers, identify the liability side, and acknowledge time decay in the next game they watch. This will ensure that price movements will take on a whole new meaning.
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