World Cup 2022: Golden Boot betting preview

By Chris Horton

15 Nov 2022

Chris Horton 15 Nov 2022

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Who are the favourites to win the World Cup 2022 Golden Boot?
Who has won the Golden Boot before?
World Cup 2022 Golden Boot betting: notable outsiders
World Cup 2022 Golden Boot odds

At World Cup 2022, the world's elite attackers and strikers will not only be hoping to lead their country to international glory, but also getting their hands on the Golden Boot award given to the tournament’s top scorer. Who are the favourites to win the Golden Boot at World Cup 2022 and what should you bear in mind for Golden Boot betting? Read on to find out.

How many goals have previous Golden Boot winners scored?

Not since Gerd Müller (10) has any player scored more than seven goals at a World Cup, other than Ronaldo’s eight goals during Brazil’s 2002 triumph. Most notably, no one has done it since 2002, with a couple of players scoring six goals including England’s Harry Kane in 2018.

The trends seem to inform us that around five to seven goals will secure the Golden Boot in the upcoming tournament, but with a wide array of attacking prowess in potential attendance – including what could be Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi’s final World Cup appearances – we could see the number lie closer to eight once again.

Previous World Cup Golden Boot winners

World Cup 2022 Golden Boot favourites

England captain Harry Kane (8.870*) won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup with six goals in the nation’s run to the semi-finals. This was followed up by a four-goal haul at Euro 2020.

The Three Lions are the third favourites (7.510*) to win the World Cup, and if England do go deep in the tournament, we could see Kane yet again reach the six-goal mark, given he also takes penalties. He has dropped into a number 10 role increasingly over his club career, but for England, he’s their main source of goals.

Brazil have an embarrassment of talent in the forward areas, such that it might be more revealing who doesn’t make the plane to Qatar as opposed to who does get selected. But there is one player who coach Tite will build his philosophy and style around – Neymar.

The Paris Saint-Germain (9.610*) attacker has been performing at a very high level recently, with eight goals and seven assists in eight Ligue 1 matches in the early part of the 2022/23 campaign. With this form, plus with Brazil being the outright favourites (5.430*) for the tournament, Neymar couldn’t be going into the tournament with a better opportunity.

For all the talk around Brazil and England, though, it’s France (7.010*) who are the reigning world champions. Olivier Giroud’s national team form has been formidable, but Les Bleus’ attacking options also include Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappé.

Whilst Benzema could still get his hands on the 2022 Ballon d’Or, it’s Mbappé (9.810*) who French fans will expect to guide them to glory. Still only 23 years old, he’s notched four goals in five matches for his national team in 2022 and his goal-to-game ratio suggests that any time he’s on a pitch he will score. Can he do it on the biggest stage of them all?

This could be Lionel Messi’s last World Cup for Argentina and one that our South American soccer insights podcast hosts suggest could be one of their best.

Lionel Scaloni has created harmony within the team, while also now having a number of young exciting players including Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández, Thiago Almada, and Julián Álvarez. It’s this trust Messi now has in the midfield options that should see him operate in his favoured number 10 position, picking up possession in dangerous areas rather than deeper in midfield. If Argentina advance to the latter rounds, Messi should be a big part of that.

Cristiano Ronaldo has tasted Euro 2016 success with Portugal, but can he add the World Cup or even the Golden Boot to his glittering trophy cabinet? The Manchester United forward is at 17.750* to claim the award at Qatar 2022. During Euro 2020, Ronaldo scored five goals – which helped him claim the award then.

At 38, it’s Ronaldo’s age that could be his major hindrance, but his great conditioning and statistics suggest that he still has the ability to lead the way.

World Cup 2022 Golden Boot odds: Who will win the Golden Boot?

*Odds subject to change.

World Cup 2022 Golden Boot betting: notable outsiders

Romelu Lukaku (19.950*) should be Belgium’s main source of goals as Roberto Martinez’s side look to make good on their promise and win something with their ‘golden generation’. After his ill-fated return to Chelsea, he’s back at Internazionale where he enjoyed the most fruitful spell of his career, in the hope of rediscovering his best form. Lukaku will have some of the finest midfielders in world football to support him, such as Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne.

Belgium will be disappointed if they don’t at least reach the last eight. That means Lukaku could get at least five matches in which to plunder the goals.

Raheem Sterling (42.820*) has grown into one of England’s most experienced men, but at only 27 years old, the Chelsea attacker will believe he’s only now hitting his peak. He scored three goals at Euro 2020 but was at the centre of the Three Lions’ journey to the final. Kane will likely get all the attention from opposition defenders, which could give Sterling the space to exploit, much like with his goal against Croatia last summer.

Sterling will hopefully get plenty of minutes between now and the first match against Iran in November to get into top form. He could be the under-the-radar pick.

Assessing some of the names further down the pecking order and your eyes are immediately drawn to Thomas Müller’s odds (68.840*). It feels like the German international has been around forever but it’s his savvy yet efficient style that still has him central to his manager’s plans (save his mini-hiatus in 2019).

Muller has a sixth sense when arriving at the opposition’s penalty box unannounced. He’s had to adapt to playing with the likes of Lukas Podolski and Mario Gómez and more hybrid attackers like Kai Havertz and the unpredictable Timo Werner. He’s still a key part of the team and looks appealing at that price.

Looking forward to World Cup 2022? Check out the latest World Cup 2022 odds on every match and group, plus outright markets and more with Pinnacle.