How To Place Accurate Soccer Bets

With so few goals scored in soccer in comparison to other sports, soccer is a sport that sees luck playing a huge role in results and outcomes. Whether this is a single match, a tournament or a whole season, with so few goals scored, games and seasons can and often are decided by a single goal. 

While it is tough to realistically account for luck in your predictions, you need to try to account for it in your results. Usually, we will jump at the chance to see a winning bet as skill, while a losing bet is perceived as bad luck. In reality, this is not always the case. 

Bookies usually offer a vast range of markets and odds, but you are usually better off focusing on one element in an attempt to level the playing field. 

We recommend betting on more specific bets and markets. To do this, you select your sport and league, while you can even go as granular as choosing a specific team too. Next, pick your market. It is really important to know that the more people betting on a market, the harder it will be for you. After all, the more bets that come in on a market, the more information the bookmaker has to nail their odds. 

This is why many seasoned bettors choose to deal in niche markets as less people bet on them. However, you need to weigh this up against the available information you can use to inform your bets with some niche markets lagging behind more popular ones with regard to information and stats on offer. 

While using your gut is something that bettors lean on at times, there is no substitute for doing your research and sifting through the numbers when you come to betting. 

Using form, head to head records and information on specific players, stadiums and competitions will help to ensure you have a more well-rounded understanding of what you are betting on. 

If you want to go even deeper into the stats, you can look at Expected Goals (xG). This metric is far more prevalent in soccer betting of late. xG is a measure of chance quality that creates a better picture of what has gone on. While this is a retrospective measure, as a side is expected to move back to the level of performance shown by their xG. 

Creating your own metrics can be helpful too, although some will struggle to find the time to do so. However, utilising Poisson Distribution, where two teams' average number of goals scored and conceded per game can be used against the league average to work out the most likely score in a game. 

Once you have created a method for your predictions, you need to convert them into probability. If you have inefficiencies, which sees your estimated probability as higher than the bookie, it means you have an edge, which means you can stake an amount relative to your edge. 

Measuring your return on investment from betting is a great way to work out how successful you are. As mentioned though, this will not really give you any indication of the amount of skill involved. Measuring your odds against a bookmaker like Pinnacle can help to show you how often you find value. If the bets you are able to place have value, then profit will likely follow. 

However, remember that if a lot of people follow the tips of one person or site, there will be less value on offer. 

Data is your best friend when it comes to soccer bets and predictions. It can allow you to build a betting model that helps you to make profit. However, long term success when it comes to your model comes from refining it and continually testing it to make sure it is as accurate as possible.