How To Place Accurate Soccer Bets

By Conrad Castleton

28 Dec 2023

Conrad Castleton 28 Dec 2023

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Learn why data is important in soccer betting
Guide to comparing the odds against your predictions
Expert insight from our team

The art of betting sees punters looking to make a more accurate prediction of what will likely happen in a game or event than the bookmakers. While betting on each sport is the same in this respect, the world of soccer betting requires a unique approach to ensure you make accurate predictions. Read on to learn how to do just that with Pinnacle.

Randomness & Luck

Whether you are betting on soccer, tennis or anything else, you need to have an appreciation of randomness and luck in your predictions. Good luck can help your bet come in, while bad luck can see you miss. Either way, luck has an impact on your bets.

With so few goals scored in soccer in comparison to other sports, soccer is a sport that sees luck playing a huge role in results and outcomes. Whether this is a single match, a tournament or a whole season, with so few goals scored, games and seasons can and often are decided by a single goal.

While it is tough to realistically account for luck in your predictions, you need to try to account for it in your results. Usually, we will jump at the chance to see a winning bet as skill, while a losing bet is perceived as bad luck. In reality, this is not always the case.

Your Predictions

When betting, you are often far better off tightening your scope in what you are betting on. Rather than trying to bet on a side winning, both teams scoring, how many goals will go in and the first, last and anytime scorer, try to focus on one aspect of the match.

Bookies usually offer a vast range of markets and odds, but you are usually better off focusing on one element in an attempt to level the playing field.

We recommend betting on more specific bets and markets. To do this, you select your sport and league, while you can even go as granular as choosing a specific team too. Next, pick your market. It is really important to know that the more people betting on a market, the harder it will be for you. After all, the more bets that come in on a market, the more information the bookmaker has to nail their odds.

This is why many seasoned bettors choose to deal in niche markets as less people bet on them. However, you need to weigh this up against the available information you can use to inform your bets with some niche markets lagging behind more popular ones with regard to information and stats on offer.

Learning From The Past

Trying to predict the outcome of a future event is the aim in betting, and the past is likely your best tool in doing so accurately.

While using your gut is something that bettors lean on at times, there is no substitute for doing your research and sifting through the numbers when you come to betting.

Using form, head to head records and information on specific players, stadiums and competitions will help to ensure you have a more well-rounded understanding of what you are betting on.

If you want to go even deeper into the stats, you can look at Expected Goals (xG). This metric is far more prevalent in soccer betting of late. xG is a measure of chance quality that creates a better picture of what has gone on. While this is a retrospective measure, as a side is expected to move back to the level of performance shown by their xG.

Creating your own metrics can be helpful too, although some will struggle to find the time to do so. However, utilising Poisson Distribution, where two teams' average number of goals scored and conceded per game can be used against the league average to work out the most likely score in a game.

Your Predictions & The Odds

Soccer predictions aren't always perfect, but they do not need to be in order to make a profit. You simply have to be more accurate than the bookie and the rest of the market. You also need to make a habit of being right more often than you are wrong, although it is good to remember that losing is all part of the process.

Once you have created a method for your predictions, you need to convert them into probability. If you have inefficiencies, which sees your estimated probability as higher than the bookie, it means you have an edge, which means you can stake an amount relative to your edge.

Measuring your return on investment from betting is a great way to work out how successful you are. As mentioned though, this will not really give you any indication of the amount of skill involved. Measuring your odds against a bookmaker like Pinnacle can help to show you how often you find value. If the bets you are able to place have value, then profit will likely follow.

Make Your Own Luck

Blindly following the tips of a tipster can be a dangerous game to play if you do not follow one with a proven track record. There are some brilliant tipsters out there, and the prevalence of them shows people want to follow in the footsteps of experts.

However, remember that if a lot of people follow the tips of one person or site, there will be less value on offer.

Learn From Mistakes & Successes

Making soccer predictions and bets can be a very tough thing to do well. You can inform your bets and predictions and make them mor accurate, but consistently making profit is tough whether you are a seasoned bettor or not. Before you make any more, work out what your want to predict and how you plan on doing it.

Data is your best friend when it comes to soccer bets and predictions. It can allow you to build a betting model that helps you to make profit. However, long term success when it comes to your model comes from refining it and continually testing it to make sure it is as accurate as possible.